UK’s general elections on Thursday are a hot topic in Europe and following a high turnout (63%) which is almost ten percent higher compared to the latest election cycle, the British pound plunged with an exit poll announcing a possible hung parliament. The thing is, a high voter turnout is very advantageous for the Labour party all across Britain.
So far, nothing is certain, but according to MSM scenarios, the Conservatives/Tories may have lost the majority. An exit poll gives these numbers so far:
- Conservative 314 – 12 seats short of majority
- Labour 266
- SNP 34
- Lib Dem 14
- Plaid 3
- Green 1
- UKIP 0
- Other 18
Approximately 76 seats are too close to call a definite winner, so we’ll have to wait until tomorrow morning to be sure. The thing is, if Conservatives fall short of gaining a majority, this will lead to a hung parliament and Brexit will be put into jeopardy.
Even if Conservatives seem to have lost seats, according to catastrophic exit polls which suggest a hung parliament, it is possible that a small majority could be still plausible/in the works, a scenario which may still keep the Brexit process firm onto its tracks. Obviously, chances for the negotiations to go smooth would be pretty slim in this case (a small workable Conservative majority in the Parliament).
The bookies are actually showing the Conservatives winning with 358-363 seats in the Parliament (326 required to govern). Following three terrorist attacks in a row, with the campaign over and votes coming in, the question is what happens next?
Most likely, despite catastrophic exit polls that were proven in the past to be not very reliable to say the least, Theresa May may be able to win a large enough majority, which would make for a quick and stable Brexit process. In a more pessimistic scenario, the Tories will win a slim majority, i.e. more or less the same situation as today, in which Theresa May will have to deal with hardliners with regard to Brexit from her own party, which raises the probability of a no-deal.
But when you take a step back, AS THINGS STAND results suggest Tories may get slightly more seats than the 314 exit poll forecast. V tight.
— Ed Conway (@EdConwaySky) June 9, 2017