Just like it was the case with Brexit and Donald Trump getting elected as the 45th President of the United States against all odds, a Goldman Sachs strategist warned investors to prepare for the possibility of Marine Le Pen winning the presidency in the French elections later this year.
Bobby Vedral has been quoted to saying in front of a stunned audience about how political correctness has a tendency to make polls unreliable, as people usually lie when asked about their vote-intention if the matter in question is highly sensitive.
And that was proven to be the case with the Brexit and Donald Trump, thanks to the mainstream media demonizing Trump voters and pro Brexiteers, i.e. people ended up keeping their real choices for themselves and the voting booth.
Mr. Vedral who is the global head of Market Strats, a group affiliated with Goldman Sachs said that global markets are way too complacent about the upcoming presidential elections in France.
His customers received an email-analysis this week which reads:
“while the base case is that she won’t, it is at best naive, at worst negligent to assume she can’t.”
The mainstream polls are showing that Emmanuel Macron, a former banker and a hardcore globalist is set to be the next president of France after May’s elections, yet the Goldman Sachs strategist believes that there’s data in the polls which doesn’t seem to be very reliable.
The thing is, when people were asked about who they would vote in the 2nd round of French elections in May, a significant 42 percent of respondents said “I don’t know”, which makes for a huge degree of uncertainty even for a legitimate poll.
The theory says that the so called shy voters are those people who are reluctant to admit to pollsters that they’ll be voting a “controversial” candidate, in our case the populist Marine Le Pen.
“Political correctness leads people to lie in the polls. Hence populist candidates benefit from the ‘shy vote’,”
The main difference between Macron and Le Pen can be summed up by two quotes:
“You, the French citizens, have the right to make up your own minds, to protect yourselves … from the sources of insecurity that come from opening up our borders.” – Le Pen
“asylum seekers are fighting for their freedoms and their lives”. -Macron